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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 51

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:03) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to TB 4, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-27-J.Wilcox.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.90 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.94 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model