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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 58

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(6:11) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 35 yards to DAL 23, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 24 for 1 yard (89-R.Shepard).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.81 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 58, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model