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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 71

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:42) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to TB 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.00 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP