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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 30

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:37) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.06 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model