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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(7:52) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.55 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model