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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 5

Cleveland Browns 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 30

What Actually Happened

(5:49) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass incomplete short left to 82-G.Barnidge. Coverage by #23 Mitchell.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.35 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model