4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 7

Cleveland Browns 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(14:18) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass short right intended for 16-A.Hawkins INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Mitchell at PIT 0. 23-M.Mitchell to PIT 9 for 9 yards (11-T.Benjamin). Penalty on CLE-72-M.Schwartz, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model