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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 6

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.44 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 6, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +2.51 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP