Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 99

Cleveland Browns 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

(1:15) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 46 yards to CLE 47, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-24-J.Bademosi.

The Three Options

GO -4.11 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.10 EP
64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 99, worth -6.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model