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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 49

Cleveland Browns 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:25) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 41 yards to PIT 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-Jac.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.76 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model