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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 65

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:43) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to CLE 23, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-21-R.Golden.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.63 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 23, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model