Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to CHI 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 22 for 1 yard (15-B.Marquez). FUMBLES (15-B.Marquez), RECOVERED by LA-31-M.Alexander at CHI 20. 31-M.Alexander to CHI 17 for 3 yards (80-M.Mariani).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.38 EP
59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model