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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 18

Chicago Bears 27 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.02 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model