Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 77

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Chicago Bears 27

(10:21) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass incomplete short left to 38-C.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP