Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 55

Chicago Bears 24 – Los Angeles Rams 10

(7:10) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to LA 7, Center-43-T.Gafford. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 17 for 10 yards (36-S.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.59 EP
78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model