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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to CHI 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.07 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 50, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model