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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 80

Chicago Bears 24 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to LA 35, Center-43-T.Gafford. 11-T.Austin to LA 45 for 10 yards (36-S.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.33 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 37, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model