4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 38

Chicago Bears 10 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 33-J.Langford pushed ob at LA 27 for 11 yards (23-R.McLeod).

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.48 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -2.10 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model