Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 88

Tennessee Titans 10 – Carolina Panthers 17

(13:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to CAR 34, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-T.Ginn to TEN 43 for 23 yards (39-D.Stafford).

The Three Options

GO -3.35 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.35 EP
75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 88, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model