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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 80

Tennessee Titans 10 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:11) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to CAR 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 41 for 15 yards (52-S.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.12 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP