Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 94

Carolina Panthers 14 – Tennessee Titans 10

(:12) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to 50, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.63 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.08 EP
72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 94, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model