4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 60

Carolina Panthers 14 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(4:12) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 48 yards to TEN 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.94 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model