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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 85

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 9-J.Ryan punts 39 yards to ARI 46, Center-49-C.Gresham. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at SEA 49 for 5 yards (57-M.Morgan).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.41 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 85, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 43, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model