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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 52

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Arizona Cardinals 25

What Actually Happened

(:48) 9-J.Ryan punts 38 yards to ARI 14, Center-49-C.Gresham, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.62 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model