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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 48

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Arizona Cardinals 25

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 46-W.Tukuafu up the middle to ARI 47 for 1 yard (51-K.Minter). Official measurement. Arizona challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.06 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model