Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 89

Arizona Cardinals 25 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 2-D.Butler punts 46 yards to SEA 43, Center-82-M.Leach. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at ARI 43 for 14 yards (10-B.Golden). PENALTY on SEA-33-K.McCray, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 43. PENALTY on ARI, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.19 EP
71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 89, worth -5.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model