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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 2-D.Butler punts 44 yards to SEA 33, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 77, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model