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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 83

Washington Commanders 0 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NE 34, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-J.Edelman to NE 32 for -2 yards (96-H.Bates).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.61 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 83, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 41, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model