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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 38

New England Patriots 27 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 6-R.Allen punts 21 yards to WAS 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.96 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 47, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP