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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 67

Washington Commanders 3 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to NE 12, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-22-D.Everett.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.57 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model