Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 69

New England Patriots 20 – Washington Commanders 3

(5:16) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to WAS 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 30 for 9 yards (43-N.Ebner; 18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.08 EP
54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model