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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 73

Washington Commanders 3 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to NE 27, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.16 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model