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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 3

New England Patriots 14 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +3.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.23 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 3, worth +0.42 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP