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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 36

Washington Commanders 0 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(13:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 88-P.Garcon (26-L.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.04 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model