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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 30

Los Angeles Rams 15 – Minnesota Vikings 18

What Actually Happened

(1:45) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.49 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model