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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 18 – Los Angeles Rams 15

What Actually Happened

(5:20) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 29 yards to LA 35, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-85-R.Ellison.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.65 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 64, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model