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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 15 – Minnesota Vikings 18

What Actually Happened

(6:59) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to MIN 22, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 30 for 8 yards (36-B.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 31, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model