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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 48

Los Angeles Rams 15 – Minnesota Vikings 18

What Actually Happened

(9:50) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to MIN 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-47-M.Roberson.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.84 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model