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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 16

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:23) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.30 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 16, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP