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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 61

Los Angeles Rams 15 – Minnesota Vikings 18

What Actually Happened

(1:19) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to MIN 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-38-C.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.52 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 61, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model