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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 48
Los Angeles Rams 9 – Minnesota Vikings 10
What Actually Happened
(6:35) 5-N.Foles up the middle to MIN 46 for 2 yards (98-L.Joseph).
The Three Options
GO
+0.78 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.60 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.80 EP
KICK
-1.77 EP
- 23% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 77% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT
-0.84 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.84 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
