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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 65

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(9:17) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to LA 27, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-T.Austin to LA 26 for -1 yards (26-T.Waynes).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.33 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 65, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 23, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model