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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 56

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:43) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 44 yards to DAL 12, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley. Penalty on DAL, Defensive 12 On-field, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.60 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 56, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model