4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.18 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model