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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 23

Dallas Cowboys 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(2:58) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.39 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model