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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 13

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(7:27) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.33 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 13, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model