Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Dallas Cowboys 14

(:31) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to DAL 30, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 29 for -1 yards (47-T.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model