Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 89

Las Vegas Raiders 28 – Pittsburgh Steelers 35

What Actually Happened

(6:18) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to PIT 39, Center-59-J.Condo. 84-A.Brown to PIT 39 for no gain (18-A.Holmes). FUMBLES (18-A.Holmes), RECOVERED by LV-57-R.Armstrong at PIT 39. 57-R.Armstrong to PIT 39 for no gain (84-A.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.65 EP
55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 89, worth -4.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model