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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.96 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model