Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 79

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

(13:15) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 25 yards to LV 46, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds. Punt was deflected by #48 Dupree.

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.93 EP
71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model